Population Institute

ABSTRACT

The need for fertility estimates at the lower administrative levels to aid local governments’ policy makers in their economic and social planning has motivated the conduct of this study. Using the 2000 census and vital registration data in 1999 and 2000, this study estimated the total fertility rates (TFRs) at the national, regional, and provincial levels using indirect methods of fertility estimation, i.e., the Brass-type method using the data on children ever-born (CEB) and Palmore’s regression technique. Results of the study were also compared with other independent fertility estimates, such as the 2003 National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) at the national and regional levels, as well as provincial-level estimates generated by Engracia and Pacheco (1985).

The study found that national, regional, as well as provincial differentials exist in the indirect fertility estimates based on Brass and Palmore methods. Results suggest that the appropriate fertility estimation technique depends on the quality of the data available. The Brass fertility estimation technique, on the one hand, may be more suitable for areas with a high incidence of non-registration of vital events. On the other hand, the Palmore regression technique may be more applicable to areas with only aggregated values available, of those with a relatively good quality of vital registration statistics.