Population Institute

ABSTRACT

The recent shift in the age structure of the Philippines could pave the way for the country to harness the demographic dividend. However, the realization of the demographic dividend remains uneven across sub-national territories due to social and spatial inequalities. Drawing on the demographic dividend and Bernard et al.’s (2023) regional opportunity structures framework, this study examines how city and municipal-level opportunity structures shape variations in demographic dividend readiness across the country. Using multilevel data from the 2020 Census of Population and Housing, a composite opportunity structure index was constructed across economic opportunities, public and private services, natural and built environment, and community and civic engagement. Spatial autocorrelation analyses confirmed significant geographic clustering of opportunity structures, while regression modeling using ordinary least squares, spatial autoregressive, and spatial error models validated the association between opportunity structures and regional-level support ratios. A four-quadrant typology revealed that 398 of 1,634 municipalities exhibited both high opportunity structures and high support ratios, while 2 out of 10 municipalities faced a double disadvantage across both dimensions. Notably, cities and municipalities in regions with a high support ratio region still had low opportunity structures, implying pressures on government resources and the potential lag of the demographic transition. These findings contribute to existing population studies and policy research by investigating how spatial opportunities mediate demographic dividend outcomes. Future work could look into the use of diverse data sources and more sophisticated statistical modeling to create and validate the sub-indices.
Keywords: demographic dividend, opportunity structures, spatial autocorrelation, regression modelling