Population Institute

ABSTRACT

International labor migration is central to Filipino life, yet very few studies have quantified how migration experiences are transmitted within households and shape youth aspirations to work abroad. Guided by Glen Elder’s Concept of Linked Lives and using nationally representative data from the 2021 Young Adult Fertility and Sexuality Study (YAFS5), this study estimated the effect of household member migration history on short-term and long-term or permanent migration aspirations among Filipino youth.

The study employed inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), that is, the effect among youth living in households with migration experience. Results showed that youth living in migrant households had a higher probability of expressing aspirations to work abroad than their peers in non-migrant households. On average, household member migration history increased the probability of expressing short-term migration aspirations by 7.5 percentage points and long-term and permanent migration aspirations by 7.9 percentage points.

Heterogeneity analyses further revealed pronounced regional variation in these effects. The marginal effect was strongest, positive, and statistically significant in Mindanao (13.2 percentage points), followed by Balance Luzon (5.7 percentage points). In the National Capital Region, the estimated effect was positive but not statistically significant. In contrast, the Visayas stood out as the only region where household migration history was associated with a negative marginal effect on migration aspirations.

The findings indicate that household member migration history was an important socializing force in shaping youth migration aspirations. Overall, the study provides empirical evidence of the intergenerational transmission of migration aspirations within Filipino households and highlights the usefulness of IPTW for estimating migration-related effects in data-scarce settings, with implications for policies aimed at harnessing the country’s demographic dividend.

Keywords: migration aspirations, household-level migration experience, IPTW, SDG 8, SDG 10, Philippines