Demographic Considerations in Climate Change Action Planning: The Use of Population Dynamics in Reference Scenarios for Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment

by Jean Paula B. Regulano (2021)


The Philippines remains to suffer from the increasing costs of climate change due to its geographic location, economic status and composition of its population. The economic and non-economic impacts of climate change are accounted for based on the number of casualties and amount of loss and damages each time a disaster hits the country. While economic losses are retrievable, it is the lives lost and the remaining lives at stake which echoes the need for a more urgent and more fit-for-purpose response to climate change. Localized climate and disaster risk assessment shall be ramped up to ensure responsiveness to the actual needs of the population. As among the main elements exposed to climate change and disasters, a magnified look on the attribution of demography in risk and vulnerability assessment shall be undertaken. In this regard, the exposure analysis tool used in risk and vulnerability assessment was modified to include population projections, and the correlation and regression between indices obtained through the existing tool and modified tool were determined. The results showed that estimates and projections may be used to improve the existing risk and vulnerability assessment methodology, which leads to a more anticipatory approach when planning local climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies towards climate resilience.