• Posted on: 4 September 2023

UPPI leads the 2020 Census-based Population Projections

With support from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the University of the Philippines Population Institute (UPPI) hosted a nine-day training-workshop on the use of Demographic Analysis and Population Projection System (DAPPS) and Population Analysis Spreadsheets (PASEX) to aid in projecting the Philippine population through 2055 based on the 2020 Census of Population and Housing (CPH).

The workshop was conducted from August 1 to 11, 2023, at the UPPI Training Room. The workshop was facilitated by Dr. Nobuko Mizoguchi, Chief of Training & Statistical Development Branch, and Dr. Anne Morse, Survey Statistician with the Population Division, Population Evaluation, Analysis and Projections Branch, both from the United States Census Bureau.

Dr. Grace Cruz currently heads the Interagency Working Group on Population Projection (IAWGPP) while other members of the UPPI faculty serve as chair or co-chair of the different working groups. Prof. Emeritus Dr. Nimfa Ogena leads the migration working group while Dr. Maria Midea Kabamalan is the chair of the base population group. Dr. Elma Laguna and Prof. Maria Paz Marquez are in-charge of the fertility working group and Dr. Grace Cruz also serves as the chair of the mortality working group with Dr. Christian Joy P. Cruz as co-chair. Technical Staff of the Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) are members of the different SWGs.

The IAWGPP has a distinct and important task of coming up with official population projections through 2055 based on the 2020 CPH. Estimates on how many Filipinos there will be in the next 35 years are important information that will guide the government and other stakeholders in their strategic economic and development planning.

More than learning DAPPS and PASEX, the training-workshop served as a venue for the different groups to thoroughly discuss assumptions and work on the data for each of the components needed as inputs in projecting the population.

At the end of the workshop, the participants successfully completed the task of coming up with a national level population projection through 2055 with three fertility scenarios: a rebound to replacement fertility level (TFR = 2.1), sustained below replacement fertility (TFR = 1.9), and continued decline to a TFR of 1.7. Each workshop group also presented and documented the data input used and assumptions made for the projections.

The results of the workshop will be presented by Dr. Cruz to the members of the Interagency Committee on Population and Housing Statistics for their feedback. A follow up workshop on subnational projections will be conducted in October this year.

The UNFPA played a pivotal role in facilitating both administrative and financial support for the conduct of the population projections.